Coming across of a brilliant article "
Las
Vegas Housing Market: Causes of the Current
Situation

"
by Jim Noteware prompted me to summarize the points
that creates a clear picture of the uniqueness of
Vegas housing market.
There is a lot of talking about Las Vegas housing
market, attitudes range from confusion to denial to
dismay. The real estate in apparent oversupply
by itself creates a general concern and confusion.
But the oversupply is not the only cause to
the housing increasing decline. The correlated
factor the demand is declining as well.
"When a market reaches its top, more buyers
decline to purchase, and volume slows. Sellers are
reluctant to acknowledge the new reality and usually
refuse to reduce prices, with the exception of
motivated sellers (this factor is a subject of an
other analyses) Generally in a declining market no
one can sell because no one will buy. In reality
buyers simply do not buy at today's price if he
believes that tomorrow's price will be lower." says
Jim Noteware
"So, instead of supply and demand
adjusting as a function of lower prices, market
activity simply stops."
Three primary causes can be credited to the
current real estate declining: overbuilding,
media confusion, and buyer skepticism.
Overbuilding,
Overbuilding is the most important factor and
also the cause of the other two. Las Vegas exploded
in building housing developments, all over, in an
unprecedented rate. Very simply we have built too
much supply for the level of demand. The builders
were in an constant race for, more, bigger, better
more attractive projects... they simply popped out
like mushrooms over the rainy days.
A more important question is, perhaps, why did we
build so much inventory? The answer is simple and
has several elements:
- First, demand was so strong for to
long True, we all believe in the growth
story. And even in the face of increasing
in-migration (from about 4,000 people per month to
about 6,500 per month this decade), we overbuilt
even for this increasing level of new population!
- The second reason is the presence of
investors in the market.... And the
investors showed up at the gates of Vegas in
massive numbers... the land of opportunities in
2002-2004. Those investors never really expected
to occupy the units they contracted to purchase,
just sell them to someone else who would. For a
time-a long time, actually-this worked. The
investor presence in the market grew with the
market.
Combining the RealtyTrac figures with data from
the Clark County assessor’s office, the analysis
found that 74 percent of all single-family homes in
foreclosure during the past six months were owned by
investors who did not live in the homes.
"In total disproportion with the real demand we
accepted them as part of the actual demand. But now
this condition have changed and they all are almost
gone accentuating the supply on the downside of the
cycle. So, we are now left with this overhang of
inventory which has caused downward pressure on
prices and longer times that houses remain on the
market." says Jim Noteware
Media Confusion, The
national media in particular - are now full of
stories about Las Vegas and compare our situation to
the gloom and doom of prior recessions.
We must acknowledge that the media have a special
place in their heart for Las Vegas. Las Vegas is
"Sin City" and much of the Strip's entertainment is
based on fantasy... This gave the national press a
feeling that the local industry behaved as a
roulette wheel, and real estate success was a game
of chance instead of the hard work and correct
decisions.
With the typical rush to judgment and poor expertise
in the field, the media venture all type of
predictions and forecasts. One day we read that
prices falling is bad news; the next day we read
that Las Vegas prices have gone so high that they
are now beyond anyone's ability to pay them, and
that the bad news is high prices. So, which is what?
The media would argue that they base their
reporting on housing's contribution to the
economy, including: employment and
credit.
- Employment: For the past 10
years, housing became the biggest factor in the
local economy because of its direct (construction
workers) and indirect (materials and equipment)
employment. As housing starts decline, not only do
construction workers lose their on-site jobs, but
a lot of related business: building appliances and
carpets cut workers, too.
- Credit: The media are
reporting to the exhaustion stories about how
foreclosures are rising in many markets,
including, of course, Las Vegas. But, are these
foreclosures a housing problem or a credit
problem?
Many have purchased houses beyond their means
through relaxed mortgage instruments (interest-only
loans, negative equity loans, etc.) which also were
created in part by the Federal government's backing
of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That stays at the
core of the credit crises of today.
Buyer Skepticism, Buyer
hesitancy will last until buyers conclude that
conditions are turning around once again, and they
should not wait because prices are once again
increasing. So, far for the moment buyers seems to
be stuck in a deep skepticism...

- Alexandra H - (webmaster & writing
contributor)

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